We are five weeks into this NFL season, and patterns are beginning to emerge. Here we take a look at how ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) uses team performance, strength of schedule and predictive modeling to estimate each team’s chances of winning the Super Bowl.
First in odds and FPI’s second ranked team after Week 5, Detroit has surged with a balanced offense and strong defensive metrics. This week: Travel to Kansas City to face the Chiefs on Sunday Night Football.
Buffalo sits just behind Detroit in title odds, with Josh Allen leading one of the league’s most explosive units. This week: Head to Atlanta to take on the Falcons on Monday Night.
Philadelphia Eagles
Sep 28, 2025; Tampa, Florida, USA; Philadelphia Eagles running back Saquon Barkley (26) celebrates a touchdown during the second half against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Raymond James Stadium. Credit: Kim Klement Neitzel-Imagn Images
The Eagles remain a steady Super Bowl threat thanks to their deep roster and relentless run game. This week: Travel to New York to play the Giants on Thursday Night.
Kansas City Chiefs
Aug 22, 2025; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Kansas City Chiefs defensive end George Karlaftis (56) and quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) and tight end Travis Kelce (87) watch play against the Chicago Bears during the second half of the game at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Credit: Denny Medley-Imagn Images
Despite some early inconsistency, Mahomes and Andy Reid keep Kansas City firmly in the title conversation. This week: Host Detroit in a primetime showdown.
Green Bay Packers
Green Bay Packers defensive end Brenton Cox Jr. (57) celebrates sacking New York Jets quarterback Brady Cook (4) during their football game Saturday, August 9, 2025, at Lambeau Field in Green Bay, Wisconsin. Credit: Dan Powers/USA TODAY NETWORK-Wisconsin.
Green Bay’s efficiency on both sides of the ball keeps them in the upper tier of FPI’s title projections. This week: Bye week, a timely rest as they gear up for the midseason stretch.
Indianapolis Colts
Sep 21, 2025; Nashville, Tennessee, USA; Indianapolis Colts defensive end Tyquan Lewis (94) celebrates sacking Tennessee Titans quarterback Cam Ward (1) during the fourth quarter at Nissan Stadium. Credit: Andrew Nelles-USA TODAY Network via Imagn Images
The Colts’ FPI rise stems from a surprisingly potent defense and improved quarterback play. This week: Play host to the Arizona Cardinals.
San Francisco 49ers
Oct 2, 2025; Inglewood, California, USA; San Francisco 49ers quarterback Mac Jones (10) drops back to pass against the Los Angeles Rams during the second half at SoFi Stadium. Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images
With their trademark toughness and efficient play, the 49ers once again look built for a deep playoff run. This week: Visit Tampa Bay to face the Buccaneers.
Denver’s defense has stabilized, and FPI still sees upside if the offense clicks consistently. This week: Travel to London to play the Jets.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tampa Bay Buccaneers kicker Chase McLaughlin (4) and wide receiver Tez Johnson (15) react after beating the New York Jets at Raymond James Stadium. Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images
The Bucs’ veteran core and improving defense keep them in striking distance of the NFC’s elite. This week: Host San Francisco for a high-stakes NFC thriller.
Los Angeles Rams
Los Angeles Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford (9) runs out to pass as Indianapolis Colts defensive tackle Deforest Buckner (99) moves in during the second half at SoFi Stadium. Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images
The Rams round out the top 10, driven by strong offensive efficiency and improved defensive play. This week: Travel to Baltimore to take on the Ravens.
Looking Ahead
Detroit Lions wide receiver Isaac TeSlaa (18) celebrates his touchdown against the Houston Texans with wide receiver Dominic Lovett (19) during the first half at Ford Field. Credit: David Reginek-Imagn Images
These 10 teams are positioned well, yet every matchup will count on the road to the Lombardi Trophy.
By Rory Vitale 
Angel Atienza-Romero